【JCW】Interview about German Logistics Real Estate Market 德国物流地产市场访谈录

2026-03-17 10:39

前言

继嘉仓网开启为#出海的中国企业提供#欧洲厂房和仓库租赁的选址服务，本期有幸邀请到了在物流地产行业拥有超过30年经验的资深专家—来自CBRE（世邦魏理仕）德国的前部门负责人Rainer Koepke分享德国物流市场过去二十多年的发展历程，也对中国企业进入德国市场提出有一些务实建议。首发视频在微信视频号，请关注{Lucy说仓}

#JCWRealEstate has started providing site selection services for overseas factories and warehouse leasing to Chinese clients expanding globally since last year. In this issue, we are honored to welcome Mr. Rainer Koepke, a senior expert with over 30 years of experience in the logistics real estate industry from CBRE Germany. He has witnessed the entire transformation of the German logistics market in the past over 20 years, and will share practical insights and advice for Chinese companies looking to enter the German market. The video link and full transcript are provided below.

Lucy：
早上好，非常感谢你接受我的采访。请先向大家简单介绍一下您自己。

Good morning, thank you very much for accepting my interview. Your career background is very impressive. Could you please start by giving a brief introduction about yourself?

Rainer Koepke：
大家好，我是Rainer Koepke，我在德国物流地产行业已经超过30年了，目前在CBRE德国也已经工作了10年。我目前还活跃在一线市场，主要是协助开发商购买物流或生产用地，同时也处理大量的租赁交易，包括仓库租赁。

Hello everyone, I am Rainer Koepke. I have been working in the logistics real estate industry for over 30 years and have been with CBRE Germany for 10 years now. My daily work is very active, primarily assisting developers in purchasing logistics or production land, and also handling a large number of leasing transactions, including both warehouse and production space.

Lucy：
您在这个行业深耕了这么久，一定见证了德国物流地产的成长。在您看来，过去二三十年间，这个市场最显著的变化是什么？

Having been deeply involved in this industry for so long, you must have witnessed the growth of German logistics real estate. In your opinion, what has been the most significant change in this market over the past 20 to 30 years?

Rainer Koepke：
我认为市场变得越来越国际化和专业化了。转折点大约在25年前（2001-2002年左右），当时像安博和盖世理这样的国际开发商刚进入德国。在那之前，德国市场由本土开发商主导，他们通常只提供10年期的长期租约；但国际开发商带来了更灵活的方案，开始提供5年期的租约。这种灵活性对租客至关重要，尤其是合同期限不确定的第三方物流企业 3PL。随后，市场规模不断扩大，来德国的开发商也越来越多。2015到2016年左右，随着亚马逊（Amazon）等电商巨头在德国的扩张，市场进入了加速增长期。那几年，电商物流每年在德国租用超过800万平方米的仓库。

I think the market has been becoming increasingly more internationalized and professionalized. The turning point was about 25 years ago (around 2001-2002) when international developers like Prologis and Gazeley entered Germany. Before that, the German market was dominated by local developers who usually only offered long-term 10-year leases. However, international developers brought more flexible solutions, starting to offer 5-years leases. This flexibility was crucial for tenants, especially for third-party logistics (3PL) providers with uncertain contract terms. Subsequently, the market size continued to expand, and more and more developers came to Germany. Around 2015 to 2016, with the expansion of e-commerce giants like Amazon in Germany, the market entered a period of accelerated growth. In those years, e-commerce logistics leased more than 8 million square meters of warehouses annually in Germany.

图片来源：网络

Lucy：
德国在前几年的特殊时期，物流地产市场是什么状态？疫情对物流地产有什么影响吗?

What was the state of the logistics real estate market in Germany during the special period of the last few years? How did the COVID impact on logistics real estate?

Rainer Koepke：
疫情期间，人们居家办公驱动了电商的二次爆发。但当线下商店重新开张后，电商的增长就陷入了停滞，对物流地产需求也随之下降，紧接着是俄乌冲突，导致物价飞涨、高通胀、能源价格飙升，建设成本直接跳涨了约20%，于是我们陷入一定程度的经济衰退，过去三年物流地产的年均吸纳量，从高峰期的800万平米回落到了500万至550万平方米左右。

During the COVID period, people working at home drove a second explosion in e-commerce. However, once physical stores reopened, the growth of e-commerce stagnated, and the demand for logistics real estate decreased accordingly. This was followed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which led to skyrocketing prices, high inflation, and surging energy prices, causing construction costs to jump by about 20%. As a result, we fell into a certain degree of economic recession. The average annual absorption of logistics real estate over the past three years has dropped from a peak of 8 million square meters to around 5 million to 5.5 million square meters.

图片来源：网络

Lucy：
好的，那您怎么看德国接下来未来几年的市场？目前德国物流地产的境外资金占比是多少？另外，对于想要在德国买地、或投资建设仓库的中国投资者，您有什么建议？

How do you see the German market in the future coming years? And what is the current percentage of foreign capital in German logistics real estate? Besides, any advices do you have for Chinese investors who want to buy land, build, or invest in logistics properties in Germany?

Rainer Koepke：
目前一个好的现象是，来自中国电商公司及其物流供应商的租赁需求在增加，他们去年租赁了大量的空间。但对于中国“投资者”来说，收购会有很多困难。德国市场目前有超过50家活跃的开发商和50多家来自全球各地的机构投资者。市场上并不缺钱，缺的是优质的租客。德国市场大约50%-60%是外资，其余是本土资金。所以我们的结论是：市场不需要更多的资金，但非常欢迎优质的租客。

Currently, a positive sign is that leasing demand from Chinese e-commerce companies and their logistics providers is increasing, where they leased a significant amount of space last year. However, for Chinese "investors," it would be very difficult to enter the market. The German market currently has more than 50 active developers and over 50 institutional investors from all over the world. There is no shortage of money in the market; what is lacking are quality tenants. About 50%-60% of the German market is foreign capital, with the rest being local capital. So our conclusion is: the market does not need more capital, but it very much welcomes good tenants.

图片来源：网络

Lucy：
谢谢您非常直接的总结！那您觉得现在中国租客在德国租仓的挑战都有哪些？

In your opinion, what are the challenges for Chinese tenants in warehouse leasing in Germany?

Rainer Koepke：
难点在于区域差异非常大。在德国西部和南部市场，空置率甚至低于2%，市场极其紧俏。很多中国客户习惯了“快速决策、立即搬入”，但这种节奏在德国很难实现，因为这里是一个相当多元化的市场。我们拥有20个物流集群，分布非常分散。如果某个区域仓库资源紧缺，中国客户要有备选方案。

The difficulty lies in the significant regional differences. In the Western and Southern German markets, vacancy rates are even below 2%, making the market extremely tight. Many Chinese clients are used to "quick decisions and immediate move-in", but this pace is hard to achieve in Germany because it is a quite diverse market. We have 20 logistics clusters that are very decentralized. If there is no availability in a popular area, I usually ask the client: what is your backup plan?

图片来源：网络

Lucy：
你提到德国东部还有一些空置空间。但那里靠近波兰，而波兰的租金比德国低得多，东德的优势又在哪里？

You mentioned that there is still some vacant space in Eastern Germany. But that area is close to Poland, and rents in Poland are much lower than in Germany. What are the advantages of Eastern Germany?

Rainer Koepke：
东德地处欧洲中心。如果你想服务整个欧洲（包括东欧），东德依然非常靠近荷比卢和德国的核心腹地，距离主要市场仅200-250公里。它依然是一个位于欧洲中心的黄金位置。

Rainer Koepke:
Eastern Germany is located in the center of Europe. If you want to serve all of Europe, Eastern Germany is still very close to the Benelux countries and Germany's core heartland, only 200-250 kilometers away from major markets. It remains a prime location in the heart of Europe.

图片来源：网络

Lucy：
在采访的最后，请介绍CBRE能为中国客户提供哪些具体支持？

Alright, at the end of the interview, please introduce what specific support CBRE can provide for Chinese clients.

Rainer Koepke：
我们可以协助客户进行租赁选址服务，如果客户有足够的时间，我们可以做“定制开发”，但这通常需要至少一年的提前期。所以我的建议是提前规划。最好提前一到两年开始规划，这样才能找到最合适的地点和物业。

We can assist clients with site selection and leasing services. We try to meet the clients' expectations. If the client has enough time, we can do "built-to-suit" development, but this usually requires a lead time of at least one year. So my advice is to plan ahead. It is best to start planning one to two years in advance to find the most suitable location and property.

结束语
#嘉仓网作为一个专注中国客户在国内和海外#租赁仓库的平台公司，为客户提供仓库选址咨询服务、以及为业主提供代理招商、市场调研等服务。2025年开启#海外仓租赁服务，海外重点关注欧洲市场。#Lucy说仓是嘉仓网赞助的自媒体节目，谢谢关注！

#JCW# is a #warehouseleasing# platform that provides Chinese clients with warehouse site selection consulting services, as well as leasing agency and market research services for property owners. In 2025, we launched overseas warehouse leasing services, with a primary focus on the European market. "#LucyTalksWarehous#" is a media program sponsored by JCW. Thank you for your trust.

提示×

提示×

行业动态

仓库知识